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Fantasy Football: ADP vs Yahoo!

Cosmic Penguin has been doing some good analysis for the upcoming 2008 fantasy football draft. He has covered early round draft strategy which has lead to QB strategy. He was using Average Draft Pick (ADP) information and Yahoo! rankings for his analysis. Since most of the leagues I have been in are on Yahoo!, I thought I would look at finding value against the Yahoo! recommendations.

My Yahoo! league is a made up of family and friends with about 1/3 are auto-pickers, 1/3 self pick with Y! recommendations, and 1/3 are fantasy football freaks. ( If you have read this far you fall into the third category.) Being a freak, the worst thing to do is to lose to the first two groups. In the first few rounds players are going to be ranked similarly regardless if you use Y!, ADP, expert list, etc. Picking superstars is pretty easy. Where we put distance on the first two groups is in the mid and late rounds. That is where we will focus.

Let us compare ADP rankings and Yahoo ranking. We assume that "knowledgeable" fantasy football freaks are ones doing mock drafts. So, we should be able to spot mistakes in the Yahoo rankings. This is a similar idea as a Vegas lines being correct. If you get enough people "betting", you will find a balance in the line. What we want to look for is where there are large (a round or more) difference in opinion and analyze it to see where we thing the mistake is.

If your league is full of fantasy football freaks, you can find value if the Yahoo! projections are correct and some players are getting over hyped in the preseason. If you are in a league with many Yahoo auto-pickers, you can plan around the Yahoo! rankings to take the correct player at the right time.

Over-rated players:
* Players with over 100 projected points (anything less is meh) and greater than a round difference in ADP to Y! ranking

The first thing I noticed is that kickers are overrated by Yahoo!. Assuming a 10 team league, most kickers would be taken 5 rounds too early. Read this FFL article about kickers.

The second thing I noticed is that Defense is overrated by 4 rounds. Unless you get one of the top 3, just wait.....

Player / position / points / Y! / ADP / diff
Ben Watson / TE / 108 / 108 / 115 / 47
In a 10 team league Ben would be picked in the 10th round and the ADP is 15th round. Y! probably ranks Ben too high.

Warrick Dunn / RB / 101 / 130 / 173 / 43
Dunn drops 4 rounds in ADP. Again, the freaks think he is over rated by Y!.

Felix Jones / RB / 113 / 81 / 123 / 42
This is one area that I think that Y! makes errors. They give too much credit to rookies before they have even made a play in the NFL. FJ is backing up Barber and unless Barber gets hurt he won't see much action. This is a guy you might want to handcuff if you get Barber.

Rashard Mendenhall / RB / 112 / 71 / 105 / 34
RM is a similar case as Felix but he will probably see more plays Felix as Fast Willie is not an every down back and should have limited carries. That is also why he is ranked higher than FJ but with less projected points.

Kevin Smith / RB / 140 / 55 / 85 / 30
Another rookie but he will probably be the starting back.... It is Detroit and they have been terrible running the ball. If he falls to the eight round there must be some value there.

Ahman Bradshaw / RB / 87 / 111 / 136 / 25
Ok, Bradshaw isn't projected for 100 points but he was on the Superbowl team. The problem is that the Giants have running back committee. Watch the injury situation there or if you pick one of the other Giant RB you might want to handcuff Bradshaw.

Darren McFadden / RB / 160 / 33 / 58 / 25
Another rookie over rated by Y!. Not even Purple Jesus was taken by the third round.... I wouldn't even take him before 10th round.

Jonathan Stewart / RB / 117 / 45 / 69 / 24
Who? Another rookie.... even better, he is coming off toe surgery. ....

Alex Smith / QB / 191 / 164 / 182 / 23
Alex is in a three way battle for the 49rs QB position. If he comes out ahead he should improve in the Martz system. Either he becomes that starter and moves up the freak(ADP) ranking or he doesn't and you can pick him up as a free agent.

Jeff Garcia / QB / 284 / 156 / 173 / 16
Jeff is a little more interesting. He was a consistent QB last year. I'm not sure that the freaks are right here. You might want to look at him sooner than the 17th round.

Joey Galloway / WR / 133 / 86 / 92 / 14
Galloway may be in the twilight of his career. His yards, catches, and touchdowns have steadily decreased the last three years. I agree with the freaks here. He is slightly over-rated but he is still WR1 in TB. If you are low in WR by the 8th round you better get him before someone else does. He probably won't make it to the 9th round.

Chris Brown / RB / 112 / 120 / 133 / 13
Another RB committee in Texas. Chris has a good chance to beat Green out at RB1. Green looked bad in the first preseason game. Y! might be right on this one...

Heath Miller / TE / 102 / 100 / 113 / 13
With a healthy Ben and an upgraded running game Heath may be held in to block more than be in passing routes. The freaks are probably right... but you can't go too wrong here. If you waited to get a TE you should probably get Heath by the 10th round.

Brandon Jacobs / RB / 241 / 21 / 33 / 12
Superbowl slump? Freaks think so. I'm not sure how he falls to the forth round. He is a monster when he is healthy. I think Y! is probably a better prediction.

Ronnie Brown / RB / 200 / 24 / 35 / 11
The freaks know he is coming off surgery. Keep an eye on him in the next few weeks.

Antonio Gates / TE / 132 / 42 / 53 / 11
Gates has not panned out the last two years and he is coming off surgery. I think that he bounces back a little this year. Still, the freaks are right. If you read CP's post you should have a RB/RB/QB or RB/WR/QB and then RB or a WR in the 4th it would be time for a TE. If you did well at a WR get Gates otherwise strengthen the WR position.

Under-rated players:
* Players with over 100 projected points (anything less is meh) and greater than a round difference in ADP to Y! ranking

Player / position / points / Y! / ADP / diff
Drew Brees / QB / 336 / 40 / 30 / 10
Freaks are right. There is no way Brees makes it to the forth round. Upgraded with Shockey and the line looks improved. See CP's post on the first three round selections and getting a QB.

Lee Evans / WR / 104 / 65 / 55 / 10
I don't have a good feel for Evans. He didn't have a great year in 2007. This could be a bounce back year for him and the Bills.But, the freaks are probably right again and he is over-rated. I can see him dropping to the sixth round.

Calvin Johnson / WR / 111 / 58 / 48 /10
CJ had a good 2007 rookie year in Detriot and Kitna is a good QB. If the running game gets going the secondary should be softer for Johnson. One big problem, Martz isn't there. The freaks are taking a little risk here but I think that the upside could be very big.

Aaron Rogers / QB / 311 / 126 / 116 / 10
It looks like the QB procrastinators are picking up Rogers in round 12. I don' t see much value here. You might need him in at this point in a 12 team leauge. The Y! projected points seem a little high. He didn't look that good so far in preseason and the preasure is huge...

John Kitna / QB / 245 / 129 / 118 / 11
As CP covered, the point fall off at QB 10 is huge (look at Aarons #s). If you waited to round 12 to get a QB you are probably going to lose your league.

Phillip Rivers / QB / 274 / 113 / 101 / 12
The freaks like Rivers. He is probably right around the tenth QB so if you procrastinated... get a QB already...

Jerrico Cotchery / WR / 132 / 83 / 67 / 16
With Favre as QB, Cotchery is probably going to get a few more long balls. How quick does Favre pick up the offense? Starting in the 6th round you can start to take some risks with your WR2 and Cotchery might be a good choice.

Rudi Johnson / RB / 137 / 61 / 45 / 16
Rudi is set for a comeback year. Again, keep an eye on his health preseason but if he makes it late in the into the fifth round you should pick huim up.

Julius Jones / RB / 103 / 67 / 51 / 16
Jones could beat Morris out of the #1 spot. If he does Y! is way off.

Reggie Bush / RB / 128 / 37 / 20 / 17
The freaks are nuts. There is no way you draft Bush in the second or third round. Deuce should be back and Bush still falls down when linemen breath in his general direction.

Duece McAlister / RB / 139 / 106 / 83 / 23
Umm yeah, freaks are right on this one. Deuce is getting healthy and will be RB1. How the freaks or Y! take Bush in the early rounds and Deuce falls to the 9th round baffles me.

I think that the big jump in the next group is due to the over-rating the kickers and defense by Y!. So, beat those auto-picks with the next group of guys....

Jerious Norwood / RB / 107 / 134 / 106 / 28
I don't see how the freaks take a RB2 in round 10. Unless something is going on in Atl , I would like Norwood go to at least round 13.

Ricky Williams / RB / 136 / 137 / 108 / 29
Ricky has had a good camp and Brown is coming off surgery. Keep an eye on this situation and Williams could be a big pickup in the mid rounds.

Matt Leinart / QB / 243 / 157 / 125 / 32
This feels like the freaks are picking up a backup QB early with a huge upside. Worst case you use him on your buy week. Best case he is throwing to two of the best receivers in the league and a to a RB that can catch the ball. If that sounds good to you, 12th round is the time.

JaMarcus Russel / QB / 138 / 190 / 154 / 36
He looked pretty bad in the first preseason game but you need a backup QB. Again the freaks are taking some risk and hoping Russel is gets better this year.

Chad Penington / QB / 221 / 246 / 171 / 75
No upside here. Declining QB going to the worst team in the NFL... Lightning could strike but I doubt it.

Eddie Royal / WR / 0 / 1688 / 211 / 1477
Royal is playing with the first team, running good routes and Cutler seems to have confidense in him. I expect that he will move up the ADP in the next few weeks. He is still a rookie and at best WR2, so I think that he will be over-rated by the freaks and WAY over-rated by the Brocos nuts (that are in my league) so don't bother trying to draft him.

James Hardy / WR / 42 / 1686 / 190 / 1496
Hardy has show some skill in preseason and has chemistry with Edwards. He is still behind Reed and a rookie so don't bother. Get him in free agency if things change.

Trent Edwards / QB / 208 / 1790 / 157 / 1633
Looks like Edwards might beat Losman out of the starting job. The Bills are making progress and with Evans and Lynch (and maybe Hardy), Edwards has a nice upside as a backup QB. There is a good chance you can pick him up in free agency after the draft.

The last thing to consider is that Yahoo! auto-pick will pick an entire first string and then it will take a second string. That means that players that should not be picked in mid rounds, like kickers and defense, will be picked by Yahoo! in rounds 8 or 9 depending on the league. If your strategy includes picking a hot D or hot kicker, do it in the 7-8th round. If you are in a small league (8) , you can get a top ten kicker and D in later rounds and should find very good value as WR/RB you got in the mid rounds will pay off.