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Marc Jones Consulting updates

I have been pretty busy the last few weeks with new web development. While I have been working on my technique, I have updates my own Marc Jones Consulting site. I added some content and a contact page as well as spruce it up in general. It still needs more content, but let me know what you think.

Fantasy Football 2009 – “You wanna talk about Playoffs?!”

Football is finally here. Three preseason games have been played and it is fantasy draft time. We had our "family" league draft last night and I think it went pretty well. This year we expanded to a 14 team league and I picked 7th. Based on previous years analysis of Yahoo vs ADP rankings , and Cosmic's Early Draft Strategy and QB Strategy, I took the QB/WR/WR route this year. Here is how my draft went down:

1.7 - QB     Tom Brady

Pick 7, right in the middle. At this point, there are no surprises. The top 5 RBs are gone  and with most teams going RBBC it is hard to pick a RB. There are a couple guys I still like Jacobs, LT, Jackson available, but with Yahoo scoring, the QB is even more important (I think every Yahoo league I have been in the winner has had the #1 or #2 QB for the season). There are two QBs ranked to go in the first two rounds and I will get my next selection halfway through round 2.... I can't risk it. I need the QB now.

2.8 - WR     Calvin Johnson

15 RB, 2 QB, and 4 WR are gone. At this point the RBs really seem to have the same projections, RBBC has taken over the NFL. Again, With yahoo being a QB/WR friendly setup means that I need a WR.   I think I get a little lucky here with 4 WR taken and my #3 WR is still available.

3.7 WR     Marques Colston

17RB, 8QB, 9WR gone. The run on QBs and  WR has started. I had a few choices for WR at this point Colston, White, Bowe. At RB,  Grant and McFadden are still there.  Half teams already have a RB/QB/WR and the other half are going to get a QB or WR. Getting consistent production from WR is much more difficult than RB so I go WR again. I pass on Bowe as KC just fired the OC this week, Cassel is hurt and that team is just a mess. White could be good but I choose Colston since Breez is going to have another great season.

4.8 RB     Darren McFadden

21RBs, 10QBs, 17WRs, 1TE are gone.  I really need a starting RB at this point. I have McFadden at RB18, so I am getting pretty good value for him at RB22.  LJ and Lynch are still there as well but both of those guys have WAY too many issues.

5.7  WR     Chad Ochocinco

27RBs, 10QBs, 20WR, 4TE, 1DEF are gone. This is where I start to see my rankings be different than Yahoo and other team's managers. Some people have started to seek out their favorite players that they want on their team and the projected points are close enough to justify it. Now, I really should get another RB at this point, but look at that... my #12 ranked WR is still there with 20 gone.  Looking ahead, everyone will still be looking for WR, TE, QBs and almost everyone has 2 RBs. There are about 5 RBs in my next ranking tier that are about the same. One of them should still be there next round.  As for TE, the top 3 are gone and the next tier has a lot of guys in it. Chad should be worth more points than a TE. I really hope Chad and Carson can get it together this year.

6.8 RB     Cedric Benson

30RB, 11QB, 28WR, 5TE, 2DEF, 1PK are gone. I need another RB. I can get Benson, Parker, or a bunch of #2, RBBC guys.  I really like Parker but I don't think he will be as productive this year and Benson is ranked higher on my list. This was a hard choice. I will probably regret it.

7.7 TE     Greg Olsen

35RB, 12QB, 33WR, 6TE,1PK, 3D are gone. I have most of a starting lineup. I need a TE and a Def  (I follow the PK last strategy) and there are no standout values at the other positions. The drop off at TE is higher than D ,so I grab Olsen.

8.8 DEF     Philadelphia

37RB, 15QB, 36WR, 11TE, 2PK, 4 D are gone. There are a few #1 RBs in RBBC situations, but there are no standout values, and I can probably still get them in the next few rounds. I don't really have any must have sleepers this year and I can get a top 5 D now. D is hard to project and I normally rotate D from FA based on weekly matchup, but there are two more people in the league so up to 28 D could be gone once bye weeks start. There just isn't enough difference at the RB or WR position to skip D.

9.7  WR     Ted Ginn Jr.

39RB, 16QB, 40WR 12TE 3PK 8D are gone. This is where Yahoo autopick is going to help me and the other live drafters. It seems that we had about 60-70% live drafting. Some people are started to drop off and letting the autopicker go at this point. The autopicker will take a PK and D before taking backups. Time for some backups. The RBs I looked at last round are still there and there are some interesting guys at WR still left. There is more drop-off at WR and so I take a gamble on a 3rd year #1 WR over a couple good #2, Hixon and Henry.

10.8  RB Donald Brown

41RB, 16QB, 43WR, 13TE, 7PK, 13D are gone. Now I really feel like I need a backup RB. I need someone with the right bye week and that has some upside. There is Brown, Leon Washington, Tim Hightower, and Fred Taylor. I like the last three guys and feel good with what I can get from them. I don't know as much about Brown and he is young. I take Brown figuring he has more potential with Indy likely to run the ball more this year and I can pick up some of these other guys later if I need to.

11.7 RB Leon Washington

44RB, 17QB, 46WR, 14TE, 10PK, 15D are gone. Huh, look at that, Leon is still there. This looks like a good value with guys farther down the list being taken by other managers. I feel good about WR and TE and they are pretty much gone. Backup WR, TE, D, and QB will come from FA based on who is hot and their match-up that week. Ignoring the backup QB at this point might be a mistake, but you can't have too many RBs. Washington looked very good in preseason and he can be a very explosive Bush/Westbrook/Sproles type guy.

12.8 RB Tim Hightower

51RB, 20QB, 49WR, 15TE, 11PK, 15D are gone. Double huh! Hightower is still there. I know he didn't wow at the end of last season, but a #1 RB with the 12th pick is hard to pass up. The other guy that looks very interesting at this point is WR Chris Henry, solid #2 and he catches TDs.  Hmmm Jason Campbell is still there but not as much value as Hightower or Henry and he could last until the next round. I feel good about my WRs and not so good about my starting RBs, so Hightower it is.

13.7 RB Fred Taylor

55RBs, 22QBs, 54WR, 16TE, 12PK, 15D are gone. Campbell is still there but so is Henry and Fred Taylor. Both Henry and Taylor have ADP of 10th round so I should take one of those guys. Henry would be the obvious choice but I really don't like his off field problems, so I go with Taylor and get all the guys I considered in round 10. Good value was had...

14.8 WR Earl Bennett

59RBs, 23QBs, 59WRs, 19TE, 12PK, 17D are gone. Maybe I should take a backup QB now. Campbell is still there but with 23 QBs gone maybe he will make it another round. There are too many #3 RBs at this spot so many will make it to FA. Time to add one more backup WR. Bennett is the next guy on the list. Big upside for endzone routes since he has good size and Hester doesn't.

15.7 RB Edgerrin James

61RBs, 24QBs, 62WR, 22TE, 14PK, 19D are gone. My luck ran out on Campbell and the remaining QBs are basically the same. I will just wait and get the best matchup in FA. WR Joey Galloway and Edge are next on my list. I like both guys but Edge could possibly get the starting role in Seattle by mid season. That offense looks a lot like Indy when Edge was at the top of his game.....

16.8 K     Neil Rackers

I know, kickers are football players too. But, they are too hard to predict and unless you get lucky with a guy on a streak, they are about the same. +/- .5 pts a game.  And I think I got lucky again with Rackers falling this far.

Conclusion:

Not a bad draft. I like my chances this year. Picking directly from the middle had some advantages that I think will pay off with the Yahoo scoring. Top guys left in free agency right now are QB: Sanchez, Collins, Leftwich; RB: Kevin Faulk, Ladell Betts, James Davis; WR: Robert Meachem, Laurnet Robinson, Hakeem Nicks. TE, PK, and D will change as people who auto-picked will drop the backup those positions to pickup these guys.

What do you think? Leave a comment!

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Welcome!

Welcome to my re-located blog.  Please update your bookmarks and rss feeds.

Thanks to the guys at Starlite Internet for getting me all setup with the domain and web hosting. I have been using Starlite for about a year and they are hosting both of my sites (marcjonesconsulting and marcjstuff) as well as Mike's new business, Parallel Music.  I also started doing some web development for them last month which has helped keep Marc Jones Consulting afloat and relieved some of the workload at Starlite.

Things are going well in Colorado and we are getting ready for fall (football).  I have finished the engine swap in the MX3 (thanks Bryce) and it is damn quick (Type-R killer). The yard work has finally paid off and the lawn  is still green. I am sure that there is other news, but I will leave it for another post. Hope you are well.

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Thanks!

-Marc